Forecasting technology to boost solar energy

Technology that gives 36-hour forecasts of incoming solar energy could eliminate guesswork for solar power plants. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is spearheading a three-year, nationwide project to develop the technology for these forecasts.

An NCAR research team is designing a prototype system to forecast sunlight and resulting power every 15 minutes over specific solar facilities, which will enable utilities to continuously anticipate the amount of available solar energy.

Funded primarily by a US$4.1 million US Department of Energy grant, the work will draw on cutting-edge research techniques at leading government labs and universities across the country, in partnership with utilities, other energy companies and commercial forecast providers.

“It’s critical for utility managers to know how much sunlight will be reaching solar energy plants in order to have confidence that they can supply sufficient power when their customers need it,” said Sue Ellen Haupt, director of NCAR’s Weather Systems and Assessment Program and the lead researcher on the solar energy project.

“These detailed cloud and irradiance forecasts are a vital step in using more energy from the sun.”

The project expands NCAR’s focus on renewable energy. NCAR designed a highly detailed wind energy forecasting system with Xcel Energy that saved Xcel ratepayers an estimated $6 million in a single year. The centre is also creating advanced prediction capabilities to enable wind farm developers to anticipate wind energy potential anywhere in the world.

“Improving forecasts for renewable energy from the sun produces a major return on investment for society,” said Thomas Bogdan, president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, which manages NCAR on behalf of the National Science Foundation. “By helping utilities produce energy more efficiently from the sun, we can make this market more cost competitive.”