US faces serious brownouts or blackouts risks in 2009

A study entitled ‘Lights Out In 2009?’, released in October by the NextGen Energy Council, suggests that the US faces significant risk of power brownouts and blackouts as early as 2009 that may cost tens of billions of dollars and threaten lives.

The study warns that if a vulnerable region like western USA experiences unusually hot temperatures for prolonged periods in 2009, the potential for local brownouts or blackouts is high, which could cascade into regional outages.

According to the study, US baseload generation capacity reserve margins “have declined precipitously to 17% in 2007, from 30–40% in the early 1990s”. A 12–15% capacity reserve margin is the minimum required to ensure reliability and stability of the nation's electricity system. Compounding this capacity deficiency, the projected US demand in the next 10 years is forecast to grow by 18%, far exceeding the projected 8% growth in baseload generation capacity between now and 2016.

The study estimated that the US will require about 120 GW of new generation just to maintain a 15% reserve margin. That will require at least $300 billion in generation and transmission facility investments by 2016.

The study identified the primary barrier to building new power plants and transmission lines as the “opposition of well-funded environmental groups that oppose and file lawsuits against virtually every new infrastructure project proposed”.