The climate risks of future tech

Will large-scale technology developments such as AI-driven systems and electrified homes create a sustainable, equitable future for Australians? Or will they place a dangerous strain on the electricity grid, be vulnerable to climate change and result in greater inequality?

These are among the questions canvassed by a new report from Monash University, ‘Scenarios for Future Living: Emerging technology innovation and development’. The research drew on 93 reports, expert interviews and industry observations to identify trends that are expected to shape the future, including the rise of AI and automation; an aging population and changing healthcare needs; and growing inequalities in access to housing and technology.

The report compiled a list of large-scale technology trends that includes AI, home use of the Internet of Things (IoT), 6G, digital twins, and energy technology breakthroughs such as those in solar materials, battery tech and wind turbine design.

Under ‘Energy and the Environment’, it lists trends such as home electrification, rapid growth of consumer energy resources, widespread future adoption of energy-efficient households, and the increasing severity and frequency of climate change.

Impact on home life

The report predicts that demand for heating and cooling will rise significantly with climate change and household electrification, driving a need for integrated, smart and energy-efficient solutions across building design, materials and technologies.

To meet this need, future technology trends will potentially include climate-driven demand for cooling; adaptive and dynamic building materials; efficiency in building design; smart energy technologies; electrification of heating; and smarter HVAC systems.

Future transport: electrified, connected and multimodal

Shaped by advances in automated vehicle technologies, electrification and aircraft, trends identified in the report include accelerated EV adoption; integrated, bidirectional and fast EV charging; micro-mobility; eVTOLs (vehicles that perform electric vertical take-off and landing); and drones.

The report observed that EVs in areas highly vulnerable to climate shocks could lead to a requirement for critical infrastructure to support high demand during times of climate emergency. However, it added that EVs could also become integral components of adaptive infrastructure, serving as mobile energy storage units that stabilise local grids.

Risks posed by a changing climate

The researchers looked at climate risks identified in the National Climate Risk Assessment, then examined how climate change could influence and disrupt emerging technologies and practices.

They found that the risks are not evenly distributed, with older Australians, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, regional and remote communities, and lower-income households most exposed due to greater reliance on energy systems and unequal access to resilient technologies.

Industries including health care, aged care, agriculture, construction, logistics and energy are also likely to face increased disruption, with climate impacts reducing workforce capacity, straining infrastructure, disrupting supply chains and increasing demand on already pressured systems.

“Much of today’s technology innovation doesn’t seriously consider the energy system implications of the technology,” said social anthropologist and lead author Dr Kari Dahlgren, from Monash’s Faculty of Arts.

“As climate risks intensify, technologies that depend on continuous power and connectivity may face greater challenges to how they function in everyday life.”

These challenges will likely play out in the rising demand for cooling technologies in a warming climate, the need for more resilient digital and energy infrastructure, and the risks posed to home-based healthcare and remote monitoring systems during power outages.

“These technologies are often framed as solutions to climate challenges, but they are deeply dependent on the very systems that are under increasing stress,” said Monash Energy Institute Director (Research) and co-author Professor Yolande Strengers.

“We need to be considering these technological innovations and how they are likely to unfold in everyday life, to ensure the system continues to be resilient to these future changes.”

Six visions of the future

Based on its analysis and the interviews conducted, the report also developed six industry ‘visions’ of the future demonstrating how the identified trends may play out in everyday life.

Among the scenarios depicted are high-tech smart homes that function as immersive digital environments powered by AI and extended reality, where households operate as highly automated, energy-optimised systems.

Alternatively, some visions imagine modular, mobile homes that adapt to climate pressures, demonstrating a shift towards more energy-conscious living with fewer digital devices in response to environmental and social concerns. Across each scenario, however, increasing reliance on electricity and connectivity heightens exposure to climate-related disruptions.

Co-author Dr Fareed Kaviani from Monash’s Faculty of Information Technology said addressing these disruptions will require a shift in how technologies are designed and deployed.

“There is a growing need to design technologies that are not only efficient and advanced, but also resilient to disruption,” Kaviani said.

“That includes building systems that can respond to increasingly volatile environments.”

While this particular report focused on findings from industry experts and organisations, the researchers intend to work directly with Australian households in the future to better understand how these expected trends will likely be experienced in everyday life. Their ultimate aim is to inform the development of more resilient, equitable and accessible technologies and energy systems.

The report was developed by a cross-disciplinary team of researchers from Monash University, including Dr Kari Dahlgren, Dr Fareed Kaviani and Professor Yolande Strengers, in collaboration with Dr Rex Martin and Dr Mike Roberts from the University of New South Wales. It was funded by the RACE for 2030 co-operative research centre.

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